电力系统自然灾害中的公众心理反应与行为选择——基于SPSS对应分析

Research on Psychological Reaction and Behavior Choice of the Public during Natural Disasters in Power System——Based on Correspondence Analysis

强台风、暴雨、龙卷风等自然灾害时常会重创城市电力系统,导致大面积停电,严重影响生产和市民生活。了解公众对大面积停电的反应有助于改善政府和电力企业的应急管理。在2014-2015年对发生过大面积停电的广东、广西、海南的7个城市进行问卷调查和访谈的基础上,通过对应分析方法,研究了个体因素在不同停电阶段下对公众的心理反应与行为选择的影响,以及不同公众的集群意愿与角色倾向的差异。停电初期,多数公众的心理反应较大但行为趋向于平缓,但伴随着停电时间增长,公众的心理反应与行为表现趋于激烈;在整个停电期间,低收入群体的心理反应与行为比较激烈;中青年、本科学历、企业职员、事业单位人员、工人有明显的集群意愿且高收入、高学历等群体更有可能成为集体活动的领导者。

Strong typhoon, heavy rain, tornadoes and other natural disasters often hit the city＇ s power system, result in a large area power outages and seriously affect the production and public life. To understand the public＇ s response to the large area blackout helps to improve the emergency management of the government and electric power enterprises. Based on the questionnaire survey and interviews conducted in seven cities of three provinces, i. e. Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan from 2014 to 2015, by the method of correspondence analysis, we study the in- fluence of individual factors on the psychological reaction and behavior choice of the public, as well as the differ- ences between the public tendency of cluster intention and role in different stages of blackout. Several interesting results are found in the research ： in the early blackout, most of the public＇ s psychological reaction tends to be in- tense but their behaviors are more gently. However as the time of blackout growth, the public＇ s psychological reac- tion and behavior tend to be more intense. During the blackout, low-income groups tend to be more intense in psy- chological reaction and behavior choice. Otherwise, the groups of young and middle-aged, bachelor＇ s degree, en- terprise staff, Public institution personnel, workers obviously tend to cluster, and the groups of high income, highly educated are more likely to be the leader of collective activities.