岷沱江流域社会经济的水环境效应评估研究

Study on the evaluation of water environment effects on society-economy of Mintuo River Basin

引入"驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应-管理"(DPSIRM)模型模拟经济社会与水环境之间的相互响应关系,构建流域社会经济的水环境效应评估的指标体系,以揭示出流域经济发展中人、水环境相互作用的链式关系.采用熵变加权法对指标体系的各指标进行赋权,得到水环境效应综合评估指数公式.以长江上游岷沱江流域为研究区域,对岷沱江流域2000—2014年水环境效应进行评估研究,通过综合及子系统评估结果分析,探析影响流域水环境可持续发展的关键因素.评估结果表明:岷沱江流域2000—2006年岷沱江流域的水环境效应处于Ⅲ级(基本安全),从2007年开始,岷沱江流域的水环境效应处于Ⅱ级(安全).岷沱江流域水环境效应评估指数在2000—2011年间呈现逐步上升的趋势,但2003—2006年略有下降,2011年达到最大,2012—2014年又逐步下降.各子系统评估指数差异性较大,有着不同的发展趋势,管理子系统各指标对综合水环境效应影响最大,其次为影响子系统指标、响应子系统指标.论文构建的流域水环境效应评估的DPSIRM及熵权模型具有实用性和可行性,为区域水环境规划与综合管理科学决策提供依据.

The ＂driving force-pressure-state-response-management ＂（ DPSIRM） model was introduced to simulate the interaction between economic society and aquatic environment. In order to reveal the chain relationship between human and water environment in basin economic development,the water environmental effect evaluation index system of social economy was constructed. Comprehensive evaluation index formula of water environmental effect was obtained by weighting each index of the index system using the entropy weighting method. The Min-tuo River Basin in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River was chosen as the study subject and its water environmental effect in 2000—2010 was evaluated. Through analyzing the comprehensive and systematic indexes,the key factors influencing water environmental sustainable development of the basin were explored. The evaluation results showed that the water environmental effects of Mintuo River Basin were in grade III（ basically safety） in 2000—2006; Since 2007,the effects changed to grade II（safety）. The index of water environmental effect exhibited a gradual upward trend during the period of 2000—2011 except a slightly decrease in 2004—2005. Then it reached the maximum in 2011,but gradually decreased in 2012—2014. The evaluation indexes of subsystems were quite different and showed different development trends. The state subsystem was the most significant subsystem followed by the impact subsystem. The DPSIRM and entropy weight model constructed in this work was practical and feasible in basin water environment effect evaluation. The work was expected to provide thegovernors with the scientific decision-making reference in regional water environment plan and comprehensive management.