摘要
本文通过选取2001-2014年福建省58个地级市的面板数据,采用DID(difference in difference)模型,从经济增长、产业升级、城市化水平3个方面来衡量高铁的开通是否对福建区域经济发展产生了影响。研究结果表明:在当前中国整体宏观经济形势趋于平缓的情况下高铁铁路建设在短期内对地区GDP总量水平产生了显著的提升作用,但是对经济增长速度有抑制趋势:同时,高铁建设在短期内对产业结构升级、城市化水平均没有显著的促进作用,但是高铁对经济发展程度不同城市的影响表现出显著的差异。最后,提出相应的区域经济发展政策建议,以尽快发挥高铁的经济效应,享受高铁建设带来的"红利"。
Based on the panel data of 58 prefecture-level cities in Fajian province from 2001 to 2014, this paper uses DID （difference in difference） model to measure whether the opening of high-speed rail is from the aspects of economic growth, industrial upgrading and urbanization. The results show that under the current situation of China＇s overall macroeconomic situation, the construction of high-speed rail railway has a significant effect on the total GDP level in the short term, but it has a tendency to suppress the economic growth rate. At the same time, in the short term, there is no significant effect on the upgrading of industrial structure and urbanization level, but the impact of high-speed rail on different cities with different economic development shows a significant difference. Finally, the corresponding regional economic development policy is recommended.
出处
《现代城市研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第4期125-132,共8页
Modern Urban Research
基金
2015年福建省教育厅中青年教师教育科研项目:高速铁路建设对福建区域经济增长溢出效应影响的模拟与评估(JAS150608)
2015年福建省社会科学规划项目(FJ2015C241)
2015年福建省社会科学规划项目(FJ2015C243)
2014年武夷学院校极课题(XD20148S)
关键词
高速铁路
区域经济
双重差分模型
面板数据
high-speed railway
regional economy
difference in difference model
panel data
