美国退出TPP对中国经济的影响分析

The Impact of the United States withdrawing from TPP on Chinese Economy

美国TPP战略既是美国外贸政策的重大调整,同时也是美国对WTO全球多边贸易秩序的战略性突破。它反映了美国政府企图重振其国内虚弱经济的努力,也标志着美国在奥巴马政府带动下对亚太经济合作战略的重大转变。一个不包括中国的TPP,显然会使中国福利受损,贸易条件恶化。然而,谁也没有想到的是,商人特朗普竟意外当选美国总统,并且宣称其首当其冲的措施便是废除TPP。美国退出TPP,会使亚太地区的政治和经济局势发生重大转折,对中国经济与贸易的影响更是不言而喻。本文旨在分析特朗普的经济政策和研究其上台之后美国退出TPP后可能会采取的其他措施,并以此探讨这一重大事件对中国政治经济贸易的影响。

The TPP strategy is both the significant adjustment of American foreign trade policy, and the strategic breakthrough of the WTO’s global and multilateral trade order. It reflects the American government attempts to revive its fragile domestic economy, but also marks a major change in the cooperative strategy of the Asian-Pacific region economy. A TPP strategy without China will obviously damage Chinese social welfare, and deteriorate the Chinese trade terms. However, no one had thought that the businessman Trump succeed in the American Presidential Election, who claims he will abolish the TPP strategy. If the United States exit the TPP in the future, it will make great effect of the Asian-Pacific region politic or economy, and also influence the Chinese economy and trade. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the economic policies of Trump and research the subsequent measures after the U.S. exit TPP, which is for getting the impact on China by this event.