流动人口聚集地区重点性传播疾病发病预测与防控策略

Prediction of the Incidence and Prevention and Control Strategies of Major Sexually Transmitted Diseases in Districts with High Density of Floating Population

以深圳市流动人口聚集密度较大的某区为例,调查了解当地三种重点性传播疾病流行情况,并预测了其未来发病趋势。调查显示,2005年~2015年艾滋病感染、梅毒与淋病是对当地影响较大的性传播疾病,运用时间序列中的自回归滑动平均模型预测三种疾病未来发病呈现上升趋势。建议政府统筹实施针对三种疾病的综合防控策略,通过制定专项防控规划、推动部门协同、全民参与、创新健康教育行为干预、完善综合支持体系等具体措施,为相应防控策略的制定提供依据。

This paper studied the epidemic status of three major sexually transmitted diseases（STD）in a district ot Shenzhen with high density of floating population, and predicted the incidence trends. From year 2005 to year 2015, among notifiable infectious diseases transmitted by sexual in local area, the prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus infection, syphilis and gonorrhea have the major impacts. The results forecast by autoregressive integrated moving average modeling showed their increasing prevalence tends. It suggested that the local government should coordinate the comprehensive implementation of defense and specific control to this three major STD. By researching and making special plan, promoting the cooperation between related departments and public participation, innovating the health education and behavioral intervention and continuous improvement of the support and service system, it may better the prevention and control work of these three STD.