城市基础设施PPP项目风险分担博弈模型研究

Research on the Risk Sharing Game Model of Urban Infrastructure PPP Projects

城市基础设施PPP项目由于其复杂性往往具有较多的参与方,而各参与方风险分担的合理与否是PPP项目成败的关键所在。运用基于风险偏好的讨价还价博弈模型进行风险在政府部门和社会资本方之间的分担,并确定各风险在政府部门和社会资本方之间的分担比例。对于社会资本方承担的风险往往是通过多个参与方联合组建的项目公司来分摊,选取社会资本投资方、总承建方及运营方作为风险分担的重要组成部分,在讨价还价博弈的基础上,运用三方博弈模型确定出社会资本方初步承担的风险中社会资本投资方、总承建方及运营方最后各自承担的比例。

PPP projects of urban infrastructure usually have more participants due to its complexity, and the reasonable risk sharing is the key to the PPP project success. The paper uses the bargaining game model based on risk preference to share the risk in the government departments and social capital, and determines the proportion of each risk in government departments and social capital. Then, shares the risk of social capital by project company which is consisted by multiple parties, chooses private investors, general contractor and operators as the important part of risk sharing. Based on the bargaining game model, applies trilateral game theory to determine the finally risk sharing proportion of private investors, general contractor, operators in social capital.