资源环境承载能力预警的超载成因分析方法及应用

Method and application of cause analysis for early-warning of resource and environmental system overloading

建立资源环境承载能力监测预警机制和对超载区域实行限制性措施是中央全面深化改革的一项重大任务,而超载成因分析既是资源环境承载能力监测预警技术方法的重要组成内容,也是制定超载区域限制性政策的基础。本文在搭建超载成因分析总体框架、阐述关键因素识别和成因分析方法的基础上,梳理总结了陆域/海域基础和专项评价结果以及综合预警超载成因分析的要点,进而在京津冀地区进行了实证应用。研究结果表明,导致京津冀地区资源环境超载的因素涉及自然、发展和管理各个类别,但关键因素的作用程度及其组合叠加状况在基础评价结果、专项评价结果和综合预警超载成因方面存在较大差异;水资源严重短缺、地形和气象等自然条件是导致超载的基础原因;人口和产业过度集聚以及低端产业、能源消费结构等发展类因素是超载的首要原因;内海净化能力差和海域生态退化、海岸开发强度大综合导致了海域生态环境超载;现行的资源环境管理政策尚不具备有效遏制和解决资源环境超载的能力。既有的超载成因分析框架、方法及要点可供各省、市、自治区开展资源环境承载能力监测预警借鉴。

Establishing the monitoring and early-warning mechanism for resource and environmental system overloading and implementing restrictive policies in overloaded areas is a vital task faced by the central government in China in the process of comprehensive and deepening reforms. Cause analysis of overloading is the most important technology of the monitoring and early-warning system of resource and environmental carrying capacity. It is also the basis of formulating regional restrictive policies. This research first sets up an overall framework for the cause analysis of overloading, then describes the key factors and the methods for analysis. Based on this framework, the study conducts basic evaluations, specific evaluations, and comprehensive analysis of overloading for the land and marine systems, and summarizes some important findings. Finally, it conducts an empirical study on the resource and environmental system of the Beijing-Tianjin- Hebei region. The results show that the causes of resource and environmental system overloading in the Beijing- Tianjin-Hebei region can be divided into natural, developmental, and management factors. The primary causes of overloading are developmental factors such as excessive concentration of population and industries, low-end industries, and energy consumption structure. Water resources shortage and the landform and climate are the main reasons for the overloading. The overloading of the marine environment is due to the poor purification ability of the inland sea, the ecological degradation of the sea area, and the intensity of coastal development. In addition, the dominant factors and their interactions varied in different regions. The difference is not only seen in the basic evaluations, but also in the specific evaluations and comprehensive analysis of overloading. Unfortunately, the existing resource and environmental management policies cannot effectively contain and solve the overloading problem of the resource and environmental system, and more effective measures need to be explored. The framework, methods, and cause analysis of overloading developed in this study can be used by the national and local governments for the monitoring and early-warning of the resource and environmental carrying capacity overloading.