广深运输通道内公共客流分担率预测模型研究

Study on Prediction Model of Share Rate of Passenger Flow in Guangzhou-Shenzhen Transport Corridor

为了解决广深运输通道内长途汽车、常规铁路、高速铁路和城际铁路4种运输方式的客流分担率测算问题,采用行为调查方法调查了4种运输方式特性对旅客出行方式选择的影响。提出采用两层巢式Logit(NL)模型构建各种运输方式的客流分担率预测模型,选取经济性、舒适性、安全性、快捷性和方便性5个变量作为效用函数的构成变量。运用二阶段估计法将NL模型分解为1个二项Logit(BL)和1个多项Logit(MNL)模型后对各种运输方式的客流分担率进行求解。广深运输通道案例数据测算表明:2020年公路和铁路的客流分担率分别为16%和84%,其中铁路运输方式中的常规铁路、高速铁路和城际铁路的客流分担率分别为2%,57%和41%。

In order to solve the problem of calculating the passenger flow sharing ratios of long-distance bus,conventional railway,high-speed railway and intercity railway in Guangzhou-Shenzhen transport corridor,the effect of the characteristics of 4 transport modes on passenger travel mode choice is studied by employing revealed preference survey.The prediction model of share ratios of passenger flow for different modes is established by adopting bi-level nest Logit model.In the prediction model,5 variables,including economy,comfort,safety,rapidness and convenience,are selected as the component of utility function.The nest Logit model is divided into a binary Logit（BL） model and a multinomial Logit（MNL） model by the two-stage estimation method,which is used to calculate the model.The case data of Guangzhou-Shenzhen transport channel shows that the sharing ratios of highway and railway are 16% and 84% respectively in 2020,among them,the sharing ratio of conventional railway,high-speed rail and intercity railway in railway modes are2%,57% and 41% respectively.