社会福利对犯罪率影响的统计考察

The Statistical Analysis of the Influence of Social Welfare on the Crime Rate

文章利用1999—2011年中国省级面板数据考察了社会福利对犯罪率的影响。采用人均最低生活保障支出指标重新测度了社会福利。回归结果表明:社会福利开支显著地降低了犯罪率。社会福利人均支出每提高10%将使犯罪率下降1.1%~1.32%。影响犯罪率的其他因素,失业率、教育水平、人口密度、人均GDP和收入差距的作用均不明确。

This paper examines the impacts of social welfare on crime rate by using the data of provincial-level from 1999-2011 in China. Different from existed research, we employ expenditure per capita of the Minimum Living Standard ProtectionScheme as indicator to measure social welfare. The regression results show that social welfare spending has significantly reducedthe crime rate. Namely, Social welfare spending per capita increase 10% would make crime rate fell by 1.1% - 1.32%. The effectof other factors, unemployment, education, population density, GDP per capita and income gap are not clear.