我国住房供给弹性的测算与影响因素分析

The Measurement of Housing Supply Elasticity and Its Influencing Factors' Analysis

在经济新常态下可以通过供给弹性这个指标来对住房市场进行调控。文章使用简化的结构式模型对35个大中城市的住房供给弹性进行测算,并使用面板的固定效应模型分析弹性影响因素的城市差异。实证结果表明,我国各个城市的弹性水平有较大差别;对于缺乏弹性的城市,供给弹性的主要影响因素是利率、人口密度和人均GDP水平,对于一般弹性的城市,主要影响因素是建设成本和基础设施投资;对于富有弹性的城市,主要影响因素是利率、人均GDP和基础设施投资。

Under the new normal we can adjust and control the housing market through the index supply elasticity. Firstuse a simplified formula model to estimate the supply elasticity of 35 large and medium cities, then use a fixed effects panel modelto analyze the main factors and its difference which affecting the supply elasticity. The empirical results show that the difference ofelastic level between cities is big. For cities which are lack of elasticity, the main factors are interest rate, population density andper capita GDP. For cities which have normal elasticity levels, the main factors are construction cost and investment in infrastruc-ture. For cities which have high elasticity levels, the main factors are interest rate, per capita GDP and investment in infrastruc-ture.