基于联立方程的地价与房价波动关系

Fluctuation Relationship Between Land and House Prices Based on Simultaneous Equation

构建了我国城市房地价之间关系的联立方程模型,以全国重点城市为样本资料,根据二阶最小二乘法给出参数估计.研究结果发现:地价和房价之间存在联立性,相互影响.对地价影响最大的因素是常住人口总数,人均可支配收入、房地产开发投资额拉动了城市房价水平,而房屋销售面积拉低了城市房价水平.房价滞后期对房价有较大影响,价格的涨跌预期影响公众的投资情绪,导致房价的变动.

A simultaneous equation model for the relations of urban real estate prices in our country was built,and parameter estimation of national key sample cities was given according to the quadratic least squares.The results indicated that simultaneity and interplay exist between land and house prices.The number of population has a great influence on land price.Per capita disposable income and real estate development investment raise the house price,but house sales area is quite the reverse.House price lag greatly affects house price.The expectation of fluctuating prices impacts on the investor sentiment and leads to the changes of house price.