基于逆高斯过程的腐蚀油气管道维修策略

Maintenance strategy of corroded oil-gas pipeline based on inverse Gaussian process

对腐蚀油气管道系统的剩余寿命进行预测可以为优化维修决策方案提供依据。考虑到油气管道不同状态下的腐蚀,将逆高斯随机过程理论引入油气管道腐蚀评估领域,提出逆高斯-状态空间油气管道腐蚀退化过程模型和维修决策优化模型。首先根据其腐蚀机理建立逆高斯-状态空间退化过程模型,运用经验最大化算法与粒子滤波算法相结合的参数估计方法对模型中的参数进行求解,得出腐蚀油气管道的剩余寿命分布函数和概率密度函数;进而建立腐蚀油气管道的维修决策优化模型,计算出模型最优的维修更换时间和最小费用,制定出较合理的维修方案;最后用腐蚀油气管道的实验数据对模型进行验证。应用实例表明,优化模型用于油气管道腐蚀评估和维修优化是可行的。

The remaining life of corroded oil and gas pipeline system was predicted to provide a basis for optimizing maintenance decision scheme.Taking the corrosion of corroded pipeline under different states into consideration,the inverse Gaussian random process theory was introduced to the oil-gas pipeline corrosion assessment field,so as to propose the inverse Gaussian-state space oil-gas pipeline corrosion degradation process model and maintenance decision optimization model.Firstly,according to corrosion mechanism,the inverse Gaussian-state space degradation process model was established,of which the model parameters were solved using the parameter estimation method in combination with empirical maximum algorithm and particle filtering algorithm,so as to obtain the remaining life distribution function and probability density function of corroded oil-gas pipelines.Then a maintenance decision optimization model of corroded oil and gas pipelines was created to calculate the optimal maintenance and replacement time and minimum costs as well as develop a more reasonable maintenance scheme.Finally,the model was validated by the experimental data of corroded oil-gas pipeline.The case results showed that the model was applicable for oil and gas pipeline corrosion assessment and maintenance optimization.