乌梁素海流域气候模式适用性评价及旱涝预估

Climate Model Suitability Evaluation and Drought and Flood Forecast in Wuliangsuhai Basin

根据2001—2011年乌梁素海流域及周边气象站点的实测逐日降水数据,利用CMIP5中5个全球气候模式在3种不同代表性温室气体浓度路径情景下的降水模拟结果,计算了模拟变量和实测数据的相对误差、均方根误差和相关系数,选用在乌梁素海流域模拟降水效果较好的模式进行集合平均,检验了该模式对乌梁素海流域降水的适用性。结果表明:单个模式的模拟结果与实测值的相关性相对较差,采用集合平均方法修正后的结果与实测值拟合程度较好,相关性更高;2021—2050年降水量主要体现出夏季更集中、冬季更少的特征,降水量年际变化大,旱涝事件频发,特别是2025—2035年旱涝事件交替出现,发生旱涝事件的年份约占总年份的1/3。

According to the measured daily precipitation data of 2001-2011 inWuliangsuhai basin and the surrounding weather stations,simu-lation results of 5 global climate models（GCM）in three different greenhouse gas concentrations typical path were compared by CMIP5 mod-el. The relative error,root mean square error and the correlation coefficient of the analog variable and the observed data were calculated. Itselected a better model for the average of simulation precipitation in Wuliangsuhai basin and tested the applicability of the model to thebasin＇s precipitation respectively. The results show the single mode of relatively poor correlation between simulation results and the measuredvalues. The results of the collection model are better and the correlation is higher than the measured values;the precipitation in 2021-2050 mainly reflects the characteristics of more concentrated in summer and less in winter. The inter-annual variation of the precipitation,droughtand flood events occur frequently. Especially in the 2025-2035 drought and flood events appear alternately,occurrence of drought and floodevents year account for about 1/3 years.