基于突变理论的城市河流生态健康评价研究

Application of Catastrophe Theory in the Study on the Evaluation of Urban River Ecosystem Health

为了合理、客观评价城市河流生态健康状态,选取河流水资源、水质、水系结构、水生态以及水系利用与管理五方面20个指标,建立了郑州市河流生态健康评价指标体系,采用突变理论标准量化底层评价指标,再根据相应的归一化公式推求突变级数值,从而确定城市河流生态健康状态。结果表明:2012年郑州市河流生态健康状况处于亚健康且趋于健康状态,其中水资源处于健康且趋于亚健康状态,水质处于亚健康且趋于病态,水系结构处于健康且趋于很健康状态,水生态处于健康且趋于亚健康状态,水系利用与管理处于亚健康状态。与传统评价方法相比,突变理论可削弱确定指标权重所带来的主观性,可以对城市河流生态健康状况做出科学合理的评价。

In order to make a reasonable and objective evaluation of urban river ecosystem health state,the paper selected 20 indicators infive aspects included water resources,water quality,water structure,water ecological and water using and management of river and estab-lished Zhengzhou river ecological health evaluation system. It used mutation theory method will multilayer evaluation target decomposition andstandard quantitative bottom evaluation index and again according to corresponding of return a formula derived mutation level numerical to de-termine city River ecological health state. Application examples show that the 2012 river ecosystem health status of sub-health and preferredhealth status of Zhengzhou City,water resources in the health and biased sub-health state;water quality of sub-health and tend to sick;waterstructure is healthy and biases in the structure of health;ecological health and favor of sub-health state;sub-health state in water use andmanagement. Than with traditional evaluation methods,the method can reduce weight of catastrophe theory of subjectivity and also can makea reasonable evaluation of urban river ecosystem health.