中国—东盟互联互通程度测量及对策

Measurement and Countermeasure for Interconnection Between China and ASEAN

自2006年中国—东盟500多种商品被确认为零关税以来,中国—东盟互联互通建设已经成为双方合作的重要抓手,双方的合作具有坚实的基础条件和重大的政治、经济意义。同时,双方在物理联通、制度联通和民间联通方面已经取得丰硕成果。文章主要针对中国—东盟互联互通的现状和推进进程做出分析,选取2006—2014年中国—东盟互联互通相关指标,利用时序主成分析方法对中国—东盟互联互通程度进行了实证分析。结果显示,中国—东盟互联互通分可为三个阶段:2006—2009年为互联互通发展的整体上升阶段;2009—2011年为第二阶段,互联互通发展速度高于第一阶段;2011—2014年为互联互通的继续发展阶段,但发展速度有所缓慢。在此三阶段,除能源外其他方面的联通建设均呈现上升趋势。最后,针对能源联通发展滞后的情况,文章提出加强能源运输安全,促进东盟能源出口;缓和政治争端挑战,推动能源联通建设;协调多国利益诉求,助力能源互联互通等对策。

Since more than 500 kinds of commodities between China and ASEAN enjoyed the free tariff in 2006, ChinaASEAN interconnection construction has become an important aspect in bilateral cooperation which has a solid foundation and is of great significance politically and economically. At the same time,the two sides have achieved the fruitful outcome in terms of physical interconnection,institutional interconnection and non-governmental interconnection. This paper analyzes the current situ-ation and the advancing process of China-ASEAN interconnection. It makes an empirical study on the degree of China-ASEAN in-terconnection by selecting the related indicators during the years from 2006 to 2014 and using the method of principal component analysis. The results show that China-ASEAN interconnection is divided into three stages： the interconnection is on the initial stage of an overall rise during the years from 2006 to 2009,on the second stage during the years from 2009 to 2011 with a higher degree of interconnection than on the first stage, and on the stage of continuous development but at a relatively slow speed during the years from 2011 to 2014. During the three stages,all interconnection constructions show a rising trend except the energy in-terconnection. Finally,as to the lagged development of energy interconnection, this paper puts forward the countermeasures： strengthening the safety of energy transport to promote the ASEAN energy export, alleviating political disputes and challenges to promote the construction of energy interconnection, and coordinating the multinational interest appeals to promote energy intercon-nection.