企业战略差异度会影响分析师盈利预测的准确性吗?

Does Corporate Strategy Differentiation Affect Accuracy of Analysts' Earnings Forecast?

选取2008—2014年沪深两市A股上市公司为样本,实证分析了企业战略差异度对分析师盈利预测准确度产生的影响及其作用机制。研究结果表明,企业战略差异度的增加显著提升了分析师盈利预测的误差率,降低了其盈利预测的准确度。进一步而言,企业战略差异度的增加显著影响了企业的绩效波动,进而加大了分析师盈利预测的难度,使得分析师进行盈利预测时更倾向于进行悲观预测,最终导致分析师盈利预测准确度降低。文章拓展了既有文献对分析师预测准确度前置影响因素的研究,对提高我国资本市场的资源配置效率具有一定的借鉴意义。

This paper selects the A-stock listed companies in Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange during the years from 2008 to 2014 to test whether corporate strategy differentiation affects the accuracy of analysts＇ earnings forecast and try to find the their mechanism. The research shows that the increase in corporate strategy differentiation significantly increases the error rate of analysts’ earnings forecast and decreases the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecast. Furthermore, corporate strat-egy differentiation has a significant effect on its performance variability which increases the difficulty of analysts’ earnings fore-cast, which makes the analysts prone to have a pessimistic forecast, and ultimately reduces the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecasts. This paper enlarges the existing literature research on the factors influencing the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecast, which can be used for reference to more efficient resource allocation in China’s capital market.