关于在役舰艇非概率可靠性模型的安全性评估

Safety evaluation of non-probabilistic reliability model of vessels in service

文章基于非概率可靠性理论和概率统计理论,结合描述抽样的蒙特卡洛数值模拟法,建立了腐蚀损伤下的现役舰艇船体结构非概率可靠性和概率可靠性分析模型。然后,以某大型舰艇为例,采用两种可靠性分析模型对该舰腐蚀损伤后船体结构的可靠性进行了分析,最后,对两种可靠性分析模型的计算结果进行了对比。结果表明:非概率可靠性理论既凸显不确定性变量的客观随机性又兼具计算量小、效率高、结果保守等优势,在工程应用中具有较强的适用性和实用性。

The non-probabilistic and stochastic probability reliability analysis model under corrosion dam-age of the vessel in active service is established based on the non probabilistic reliability theory and prob-ability statistics theory, and the Monte Carlo Simulation （MCS） of descriptive sampling is introduced to cal-culate the reliability of vessels in service. Simultaneously, the reliability of a large vessel is calculated by the two kinds of reliability analysis model on the reliability of hull structure after corrosion, and the reli-ability of the two calculation results is compared and analyzed. The result shows that the non-probabilistic reliability both can highlight the objectivity of uncertain variables and low amount of calculation; high effi-ciency, conservative results, and has a very strong practicability in engineering application.