基于季节性动力学模型预测与控制新疆布鲁氏菌病的流行

Based on the seasonal dynamic model to predict and control the epidemic of brucellosis in Xinjiang

目的构建季节性动力学模型,拟合并预测新疆新发的急性人间布鲁氏菌病的流行趋势,提出有效控制布鲁氏菌病的决策依据。方法针对布鲁氏菌病的传播机理分析建立具有周期性传播率的动力学模型,拟合2010—2014年新疆新发的急性人间布鲁氏菌病数量并长期预测波动规律。改变模型参数对基本再生数R0的影响,可确定消除布鲁氏菌病的措施。结果SEIV模型较好的拟合新疆新发的急性人间布鲁氏菌病季节性波动规律,平均绝对百分比误差MAPE=20.379 4%,拟合累积新发病数量时MAPE=6.371 5%。模型预测2015—2019年疫病数量呈周期性上升,同时估计基本再生数R0=1.902 8,说明布鲁氏菌病尚不能被消除。参数敏感性分析确定有效策略为:减少羊/牛新出生数量;增大已感染布病羊/牛屠杀率;加强易感羊/牛疫苗接种率;降低疫苗丢失率。结论季节性动力学模型适用于拟合及预测新疆新发的急性人间布鲁氏菌病,具有较高可行性,同时为相关部门提供控制布鲁氏菌病的参考措施。

Objective The purpose of this paper is to establish a seasonal dynamic model to fit and predict the human brucellosis epidemic trend,so as to put forward some effective measures to eradicate brucellosis. Methods Based on the transmission mechanism analysis of brucellosis in Xinjiang,we proposed a SEIV model with periodic transmission rates to fit the new human brucellosis cases from 2010 to 2014 in Xinjiang,and predicted the new cases fluctuation pattern in the future. We also performed some sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number R0 in terms of model parameters,in order to determine the effective measures to eliminate brucellosis. Results Seasonal dynamic model could better fit the variation of new human brucellosis cases MAPE =20. 379 4%,and fit the cumulate new cases MAPE = 6. 371 5%. We predicted that the number of new acute human brucellosis was increasing from 2015 to 2019. We also estimated that the basic reproduction number R0= 1. 902 8,it indicated that human brucellosis could not be eliminated. Parameter sensitivity analysis manifested that the following strategies could eliminate brucellosis： reducing the birth number of sheep / cattle,raising the slaughter rate of infected sheep / cattle,increasing the vaccination rate of susceptible sheep /cattle,and decreasing the loss rate of vaccination. Conclusion Seasonal dynamics model was suitable for the fitness and prediction of new human brucellosis cases with high feasibility. At the same time,it could provide reference measures for relevant departments to control brucellosis epidemics.