越过山丘:2017年温州工业经济运行分析与展望

Analysis and Forecast of Wenzhou's Industrial Economy in 2017

2016年温州工业经济进入库存弱周期收尾阶段,工业经济加速动能减弱,运行态势总体平稳。工业企业依然未根本摆脱财务高杠杆、主业低增长的陷阱。预期2017年二季度温州工业品价格越过顶部,需要重点关注前期价格上涨产生的滞后负效应;全年工业经济运行投资节奏放缓,微观企业效益将有小幅改善。近中期优先产业政策重点是,加快补齐区域创新体系短板,推进智能制造升级,提升产品渠道、质量与服务品牌,增强产业引领乃至参与制造流程整体协作能力,以及整合外部优势资源的整体开放水平,防范工业领域民间投资出现短期再抽离的风险。

In 2016, Wenzhou’s industrial economy entered a closing stage of weak inventory cycle. Though its growth slowed down, the industrial economy maintained stable on the whole. Industrial companies still couldn5t get rid of the influence of high financial leverage and slow business growth. In the second quarter of 2017, the price of industrial goods is forecasted to be over the top, so the negative effect caused by the early price rise should be paid special attention to. In 2017, investment in industrial economy will slow down, while micro- enterprises？ earnings will be improved slightly. The priority of industrial policy in the short and mid term should be given to weaken regional innovation systems,to accelerate intelligent manufacturing upgrade,and to improve product channels, quality and service. Thus the leading ability or even the corporation ability to participate in the overall process of manufacturing capacity will be enhanced. Exterior advantageous resources should be integrated to avoid the risk of short-term withdrawal of private investment.