桥梁作为潜在恐袭目标的ANP仿真模型

ANP simulation model of bridges as potential terrorist attack targets

为评估桥梁恐怖袭击风险,提出了一种基于网络分析法(ANP)的桥梁恐怖袭击风险评估仿真模型。通过构建桥梁恐怖袭击风险评估指标体系和ANP网络模型,采用Delphi咨询法和Saaty标度法对部分定性评估指标进行了量化,利用SD软件,分别使用ANP和AHP两种方法对某地区五座桥梁作为潜在恐袭目标进行了风险评估和对比分析。仿真结果表明,ANP方法能改进AHP风险评估模型的不足,评估结果可为相关部门反恐提供决策参考依据。

To assess bridge risk of terrorist attacks,this paper proposed a simulation model of risk assessment based on analytic network process( ANP). Through building bridge terrorism attacks risk assessment index system,adopted Delphi consulting method and the Saaty scale method to quantify some qualitative assessment indicators,used validity coefficient method to verify the scientificity and consistency. Five bridges in one region could as potential targets for modeling and simulation and risk assessment,it used the SD software,ANP and AHP method to calculate the evaluation judgment matrix,the weighted matrix,limit the super matrix,and the consistency check. Simulation results show that the ANP method can improve the shortage of AHP risk assessment model,and the evaluation results can provide decision-making reference for the relevant departments.