黑龙江及周边中强震前不同参数模型矩加速释放(AMR)现象特征分析

Analysis on Features of Accelerating Moment Release(AMR) in Different Spatial Scales before Moderately Strong Earthquakes in Heilongjiang and its Surrounding Area

应用时间破裂分析方程中表征地震距释放程度的m值,选取不同空间尺度进行时空扫描研究,得到震前1年以每2个月为时间间隔的空间m值随时间变化的分布图像,运用不同参数设置计算了地震前Benioff累积应变释放特征。通过对比这些变化找出研究区内m值空间分布搜索主震破裂点扫描效果较好的参数模型,尝试性地给出了"矩释放程度空间扫描"方法应用于地震预测的经验指标。并结合与矩加速释放具有相同物理机制的加卸载响应比(Load/Unload Response Ratio)方法进行综合分析,利用这两种方法对地震进行中短期预测,达到两种方法互相检验、相互辅助的目的。考虑到本文仅对6个震例进行研究,无法给出具有统计显著性的结论,所以仍需结合其他方法进行点、线、面的综合分析。

By applying the value m,which represents the moment release in the‘time-to-failure analysis’ function,a spatio-temporal scanning research was carried out by selecting different spatial scale,and one distribution image of the changing spatial value m,which was measured by taking two months as an interval one year before the earthquake,was acquired. And by means of different parameter settings,the cumulative Benioff strain release characteristics before earthquake were calculated. By comparing the changes of the value m in the research area,parameter models,which have better scanning effect in spotting failure points of the principal earthquake, were identified, and experience indexes for earthquake prediction by applying ＂moment release spatial scanning＂method were provided tentatively. Moreover,a comprehensive analysis was made by combining Accelerating Moment Release（AMR） and Load/Unload Response Rat（LURR）,which share the identical physical mechanism and are used for medium-and short-term earthquake forecast. In this way,the two methods are checked and supplied each other. Given that only 6 cases are provided in this paper,it’s unlikely to get a statistically significant conclusion. So it leaves room for comprehensive analyses by adopting other methods.