“16·7”江汉至黄淮华北极端强降雨过程决策气象服务分析

Decision-making Meteorological Service Analysis on “2016-July” Extreme Precipitation in the area from Jianghan to Huanghuai and North China

通过分析2016年7月18~21日江汉至黄淮华北等地极端强降雨过程特点和预报服务情况,从决策气象服务的角度,深度剖析国家级气象预报和服务之间的关系,提炼气象服务的亮点。为了更好分析2016年7月18~21日强降雨过程预报服务特点,将其与2012年7月21日华北地区极端强降雨过程预报和气象服务情况对比,突显此次降雨过程的极端性,总结气象服务的不足,提出改进思路和措施,积累极端降雨过程气象服务经验,为今后极端事件的气象服务提供参考。

Through analyzing the features and forecast services in July 18-21,2016 extreme precipitation in the areas from Jianghan to Huanghuai and North China,this paper illuminated the relationship between national meteorological forecast and services,and refined the highlights of the latter,from the perspective of decision-making meteorological services. For a better analysis of the forecast service features of this precipitation,a contrast was made between it and the North China extreme precipitation on July 21,2012 in terms of rainfall forecast and meteorological services. This contrast highlighted the extremity of this precipitation,and identified the deficiencies in meteorological services.Further,recommendations and measures for improvement were proposed and experiences of meteorological services in the process of extreme precipitation were accumulated,which can serve as a reference for future meteorological services in extreme weathers.