农户收入水平与宗教信仰:U型曲线假说及其验证

Peasants' Income Level and Their Religious Belief:Hypothesis and Verification Based on U-curve

关于农户收入水平与信仰宗教之间的关系,存在着两种不同观点的争论。争论的焦点为:收入水平与农户信仰宗教概率间究竟是呈正相关还是负相关关系。提出收入水平与宗教信仰之间呈U型曲线关系的理论假说,进一步利用2010年全国农村固定观察点数据,使用零膨胀泊松模型和Logit模型对假说进行证实。基于模型回归的结果可知,家庭人均月收入处于1 826~2 921元区间的家庭的宗教信仰概率最低;人均月收入低于1 826元时,人均月收入水平越低,该家庭信仰宗教的概率越高;当人均月收入高于2 921元时,人均月收入水平越高,该家庭信仰宗教的概率越高。

There are two different dispute opinions on the relationship between peasants＇ income level and their religious belief. The focus of dispute is whether the correlation between income level and the probability of their religious belief is positive or negative. We propose the hypothesis that their relationship conforms to U-curve, further, we verify our hypothesis with zero-inflated Poisson model and Logit model using data from rural fixed observation points in 2010. The results from model regression reveal that the probability of household with religious belief is the lowest while the monthly income of a household is 1 826 - 2 921 RMB Yuan. While the monthly income of a household is 〈 1 826 RMB Yuan, the lower a monthly income of a household is, the higher the probability of a household with religious belief is. While the monthly income of a household is 〉 2 921 RMB Yuan, the higher a monthly income of a household is, the higher the probability of a household with religious belief is.