摘要
利用2005—2015年丹东河口桃树花期物候观测资料和宽甸国家基准气象站的气象观测资料,分析桃树花期前的光、温、湿等气象要素与花期的相关系数,通过分析花期前每候的气象要素平均值与花期的内在关系,并根据相关系数的极值来确定预报因子,采用逐步回归方法,利用SPSS软件,建立桃树花期预测模型。结果表明:花期预测模型拟合效果较好,预报准确率满足业务要求,及时为政府和果农提供准确的桃树花期预报。
From 2005 to 2015 in Dandong estuary of peach flowering phenology observation data and the Kuandian national standard meteorological observation data,the correlation coefficient of peach before flowering light ,temperature, humidity and other meteorological elements and flowering ,flowering through the analysis of meteorological elements before each hour average correlation with flowering period,and to determine predictors according to the maximum correlation coefficient,using stepwise regression method, using SPSS software,the establishment of peach florescence forecast model. The results show that the prediction model of the flowering period has a good fitting effect,and the forecast accuracy can meet the business requirements ,and provide an accurate forecast of peach blossom in time for the government and orchardman.
出处
《北方果树》
2017年第2期6-10,共5页
Northern Fruits
关键词
回归方法
预测
丹东桃树
花期
Regression Method
Predict
Dandong Peach
Florescence
