俄罗斯与西方——三十年来俄罗斯外交的路径选择

Russia and the West: The Path Choice of Russian Foreign Policy in the Past 30 Years

20世纪80年代中期以来,俄罗斯走向西方的道路屡遭挫折。戈尔巴乔夫“新思维”的结果是苏联解体、苏共败亡。叶利钦时期对外战略上向美国一边倒,也不能换来美国的信任,北约的扩大以及科索沃战争的爆发使得俄美关系陷入低谷。普京借“9·11”向西方的靠拢及短暂的重启之路换来的是俄格战争之后的俄美对抗。2014年乌克兰危机爆发导致克里米亚并入俄罗斯,美欧联手制裁俄罗斯,俄罗斯内外交困。三十年来俄罗斯与西方关系的发展至此发生根本性的变化,标志着俄罗斯走向西方外交政策的终结。2017年美国新任总统特朗普上台后,俄美关系改善再次出现转机,但是新一轮俄美关系的重启将是有限度的,面临着两国国内政治及一系列复杂问题的牵制。俄罗斯的西方政策将实现从走向西方到与西方关系正常化的根本性转变。

Since the mid-1980 s,Russia has experienced repeated setbacks with the diplomacy of "going west". The results of Gorbachev’s "new thinking"were the collapse of the Soviet Union as well as the decline and fall of the Soviet Communist Party. Yeltsin’s diplomatic strategy was"leaning to one-side",which was leaning towards the Western countries headed by the United States. However,this could not win Americans’ trust. With the expansion of NATO and the breakout of Kosovo war,Russia-US relations hit the rock bottom. Putin tried to take advantage of the September 11 attacks to move closer to the West. After a short term of Russia’s return to the Western society,Russia and America ended in confrontation after the war between Russia and Georgia. The Ukraine crisis in 2014 resulted in Russia’s annexation of Crimea,but Russia was beset with difficulties and troubles both at home and abroad due to the sanctions imposed by United States and Europe. By this time,the relation between Russia and the West has undergone a fundamental change,marking the end of Russian foreign policy of going west.