中克两国高等教育回报率比较研究

Study on the Rate of Investment on Tertiary Education between China and Croatia

前有中国-中东欧"16+1"合作机制,后有我国倡议的"一带一路"宏大构想,因此本文选取"一带一路"覆盖区域中东欧16国之一——历史文化遗产丰富的克罗地亚,就中克两国高等教育回报率进行比较研究。由于国际上普遍使用的受高等教育劳动力比率这一指标在国内相对混乱,作者选取了《中国统计年鉴》上关于人口受教育程度的抽样调查作为源数据,创建了与国际指标类似的中国受高等教育劳动比率。实证结果表明,发展高等教育的确能够促进经济增长,但克罗地亚已经过了高等教育回报率的拐点。本文预测了高等教育对中国经济增长的临界值,说明中国距离拐点尚有一段距离。因此建议克罗地亚应引导年轻人接受职业教育,而中国仍应鼓励青年学生接受高等教育。

With the consecutive proposes of two great policies - ＂the Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European countries＂ and ＂The Belt and Road＂-China shows much interest on building connection with the 16 countries in Central and Eastern Europe. This article starts to discuss the rate of investment on tertiary education between China and Croatia （one of the 16countries）. Due to the lack of an exact indicator of the ratio of workforce who received tertiary education in China, we create a similar one with combination of sourcing data in China Statistical Yearbooks and calculating method of World Bank＇s standard. Though the empirical analyses we draw a conclusion that developing tertiary education can bring economic growth on condition that the ratio of workforce who received tertiary education doesn＇t exceed the breakthrough point, otherwise excessive higher education would hinder economic growth. Set China and Croatia as examples, Croatia has exceeded the breakthrough point whereas China still has a long way to go.