基于灰靶理论的动态评价方法

Dynamic Evaluation Method Based on Grey Target

为了比较多个系统在不同时刻的发展水平和某一段时间的动态累积水平,需要进行动态评价.传统灰靶理论方法无法比较多个系统在某一时间段各个时刻和总体的发展水平,只考虑各评价指标值的差异程度(现状),不考虑指标值增长程度.将二维数据加入时序数据扩展为三维数据,提出基于灰靶理论的动态评价方法,该方法既可以得到各评价对象(方案)好坏程度的评价值及排序结果,也可以得到各评价对象(方案)增长程度的评价值及排序结果,还可以得到同时考虑各评价对象指标值差异程度和增长程度的综合评价值.既可以得到各评价对象(方案)各时刻的综合评价值及排序,也可以得到各评价对象在某个时间段内总体的评价值和排序结果.基于靶心度可以进行模式识别、分级和选优.基于贡献度分析,可以分析各指标对模式靶心度的影响程度,从而找到关键影响因素.最后用一个实例说明本研究实际应用上的有效性.该方法给动态评价提供了思路,是综合评价方法研究的有益补充,可以利用该方法进行应用研究.

The two-dimensional data with time series data is extended to three- dimensional data. Dynamic evaluation method based on grey target theory is put forward, which can get the evaluation values and sequencing results of the evalua- tion objects, get the evaluation values and sequencing results of the growth of the evaluation objects and take into account the extents and growth of the evaluation objects, and get the evaluation values and sequencing results of the evaluation ob- jects at a certain time and the overall evaluation values and sequencing results of theevaluation objects at a period of time. Bull＇s-eye degree analysis can perform pattern recognition, classification and optimal selection. Contribution degree analysis can identify the key influence factors. Finally, a practical example is given to show the effectiveness of the research in practice. The method proposed in this study provides an idea in dealing with dynamic evaluation, helpfully complements the comprehensive evaluation method, and facilitates the researches in related fields.