新常态下经济增长方式转变与就业增长——基于广义虚拟经济视角的分行业实证检验

Will Economic Growth Mode Transformation and Employment Growth under “New Normal”——The Sub-Sectors Empirical Test Based on the Generalized Virtual Economy

首先基于索罗残差法测算了中国实体经济和广义虚拟经济的TFP增长率,以其对经济增长的贡献份额(CTFP)作为衡量指标比较了两大行业的经济增长方式转变及就业弹性的变化现状;然后运用BP人工神经网络预测了两大行业经济增长方式转变及就业弹性和就业结构的演化趋势。结果表明,1995-2014年我国经济增长的总体粗放特征没有根本性改变,经济增长方式转变对就业产生了一定的抑制效应,且对实体行业冲击较大;未来中国经济增长方式将逐步向集约化过渡,广义虚拟经济发展的就业增长效应日益凸显。在广义虚拟经济的引领下,中国的经济增长方式转变与就业增长的关系将从"抑制"向"耦合"演变。

Based on the Solow residual method,this paper firstly calculates TFP growth rate of real economy industry and the generalized virtual economy industry,and compares transformation of economic growth mode and employment status of the two industries by using TFP of the share of contribution to economic growth（CTFP） as a indicators to measure the transformation of economic growth mode;and then,using BP ar-tificial neural network method,forecasts the future trend of the transformation of economic growth mode in the two industries.The results show that the extensive mode of growth had not fundamentally changed.The transformation of economic growth mode has a certain inhibitory effect on employment,and it has greater impact on the real industry.China＇s economic growth mode will further intensification and the intensive level of generalized virtual economy and its employment growth will be more significantly.Therefore,under the guidance of the generalized virtual economy,the relationship between China＇s economic growth mode and employment growth will be from the ＂Inhibiting＂ to ＂coupling＂.