论当前东南亚局势

On the Current Situation in Southeast Asia

在经济上,东南亚各国在保持连续多年较快增长的基础上,今后几年还将继续平稳增长。在政治上,近年东盟各国政局基本稳定,马来西亚、泰国将举行大选,预计不会有太大的变化。印尼新总统佐科已经巩固了自己的地位,缅甸新政府能否有所作为,还需要再做进一步的观察。然而,受大国关系重新建构的影响,东南亚安全局势变得比较复杂,美国新总统特朗普的对外政策变化将会为今后大国在东南亚的博弈增添许多变数。特别是今后中美关系的演变,将给该地区政治、经济与安全局势带来更多的不确定性。

To sum up,with regard to economy,steady growth will be witnessed over the next few years on the basis of maintaining rapid growth for many years.In terms of political situation,the ASEAN countries are basically stable.General elections will be held in both Malaysia and Thailand and the elections'results will not go beyond expectation.Zoekko,the Indonesian new president,has consolidated his power and whether the new Burmese government can make a difference will need further observation.Under the influence of the re-construction of the relationship between the major powers,however,the security situation in Southeast Asia has become more complicated.The new foreign policy under US President Trump will add many variables to the great powers'competition in Southeast Asia in the future.The Sino-US relations,to some extent,are difficult to predict,which has brought many uncertainties to the South-East Asian political,economic and security situation.