小/弱国的“大国平衡”外交机理与菲律宾的中美“再平衡”

Small/Weak Countries' Great Power Balance Diplomacy and the Philippines' Rebalancing Toward China and the U. S.

与大国相比,小/弱国是一种独特的国际行为主体,其外交政策要与自身的实力地位和国家利益相一致。面对两个存在一定竞争或对抗关系的大国,小/弱国通常采取"大国平衡"外交,而这种外交具有不同于大国视角的内在机理。杜特尔特当选菲律宾总统之后,对中国和美国的态度截然不同,也迥异于上届政府,似乎呈现一种"亲中疏美"的趋势。实际上,杜特尔特政府不过是试图从上一届政府的对美"选边"倾向向"大国平衡"回调,其主要原因在于菲律宾的首要任务是发展经济、中美地区影响力的消长和杜特尔特的鲜明个性,基本目标是维护外交自主、谋求中国的经济帮助和维持大国平衡状态。在可预见的未来,在这种"大国平衡"外交框架下,美菲同盟仍将继续得到维持,但两国互信可能有所降低,菲律宾将减少对美国的防务依赖。

Small or weak countries act differently from great powers in international affairs,but all countries'foreign policies undoubtedly need to be consistent with their power,international position and national interests.After elected as president of the Philippines,Duterte has quite different attitudes toward China and the U.S.,which also differ from those of the Aquino III administration.In this case,there seems a trend of'approaching-to-China and parting-from-US'.As a matter of fact,what the Duterte administration has been doing is to readjust foreign policies from the previous administration's'sides-taking'to'balanced great powers diplomacy',mainly because of its prior task of development,change of influence of China and the U.S.in the region,and distinct personality of Duterte.Briefly speaking,purposes of the Duterete administration's'foreign policy turn'include pursuing autonomous policies,obtaining economic assistance from China,and maintaining balanced state of great powers.Furthermore,the US-Philippine alliance will maintain in the foreseeable future,but the degree of mutual trust will possibly decrease and the Philippines may lessen dependence of the U.S.