我国OFDI与出口贸易关系及其时空差异分析

Analysis on the Relationship between China's OFDI and Export and the Difference in Temporal and Spatial Dimension

对外直接投资的贸易效应在时间上和空间上都可能存在差异,鲜有文献同时考虑这两方面差异。总体研究表明:我国对外直接投资具有显著的贸易促进效应。时间维度上的结果显示:我国OFDI的贸易促进效应整体呈现先上升后下降的倒"U"型趋势,说明近年来随着国际、国内经济环境的变化,我国对外直接投资的结构也在发生变化。空间维度上的结果显示:我国OFDI对低收入国家的贸易促进效应要显著强于中高收入国家和高收入经合组织国家,对亚洲国家的促进效应强于欧洲与非洲国家。另外,前述倒"U"特征在欧洲、亚洲、非洲样本中均存在,但在非洲,上升趋势似乎占主导地位。

The trade effect of OFDI may vary in the time and space dimension. General study illustrates that China＇s OFDI significantly promotes trade. In the temporal dimension, the results indicate that the general trend of trade-promoting effect shows inverse-U curve, which means that with the change of international and domestic economic environment, China＇s OFDI structure also varies.In the spatial dimension, the results show that trade-promoting effect of China＇s OFDI is stronger in low-income than in middle-high-income countries and high-income OECD countries, and is stronger in Asian countries than in European and African countries. Moreover, the inverse-U curve mentioned above exists among European, Asian and African; while in Africa, the upward trend seems to prevail.