人民币加入SDR后货币结构和定值新标准研究

Analysis of the Currency Structure Change and New Criteria for Currency Basket with RMB Joining the SDR Basket

本文采用情景分析模型,测算未来2015~2055年间SDR的货币结构及其影响因素。研究发现:在IMF官方预测、中国经济发展乐观和悲观预测三种趋势下,未来人民币在SDR的权重将会逐年增加,与欧元和美元一起承担SDR货币篮子中国际货币的核心作用。同时,人民币在SDR货币篮子的权重随着人民币加入SDR的时间点越晚而越高,等待时间越久,人民币加入SDR的事件本身将对SDR产生越大的冲击,此时人民币加入SDR是最佳窗口期。国际储备货币和国际债务的影响因素模型显示,一国对外贸易和GDP占比对国际债务占比影响较小,对储备货币占比影响较大,货币贬值和金融市场均会影响二者占比。

This paper predicts shares and risk factors of SDR currency structure from 2015 to 2055 by the scenario analysis. All the researches under IMF forecast, the pessimistic and optimistic forecasts show that the RMB＇s share in the SDR basket will increase year by year, and it will assume the central role of the SDR basket of international currencies with the euro and the US dollar.The RMB＇s share in the SDR basket will be higher with a later joining time point, and the longer the waiting time, the greater impact on the SDR will the event of RMB joining the SDR will have, so it is the best time to join the SDR. Meanwhile, the models of international reserve currencies and international debts show that the level of the foreign trade and GDP have little impact on the proportion of reserve currency, but have a greater impact on international debts.But currency devaluation and financial markets will affect the proportion of the both.