中国跨越“双重中等收入陷阱”的路径选择

China's Choice in Overcoming the Dual Middle-Income Traps

中国正处于跨越"中等收入陷阱"的关键时期,推动经济增长的因素发生深刻变化,国内消费对经济增长具有了更加重要的意义,因此需要通过扩大中等收入群体促进大众消费。本文提出"双重中等收入陷阱"的命题,即指一个经济体在中等收入发展阶段人均产出的长期停滞和中等收入群体长期无法扩大,而且这两个方面是相互影响、密切联系、互为因果的。基于中国社会科学院社会学研究所中国社会状况综合调查(CSS)数据,本文分析了中国中等收入群体的规模和发展趋势、中等收入群体与中产阶层和中层认同之间的关系,以及中等收入群体的边际消费倾向,认为扩大中等收入群体是促进大众消费、保持经济持续稳定增长、跨越"双重中等收入陷阱"的重要举措,并提出了相关的路径选择和政策建议。

China is at a crucial stage of overcoming the middle-income trap, while the factors that drive economic growth have undergone significant changes, and domestic consumption plays a more important role in economic growth. Thus, it is necessary to promote mass consumption by expanding the middle-income groups. This paper proposes the which be exp means that in an economy the per capita output proposition of ＂ dual middle-income traps＂, stagnates and the middle-income groups cannot anded for a long time. These two factors are mutually related in a very close manner. Based on data from the Chinese Social Survey （CSS） conducted by the Institute of Sociology at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, this paper analyzes the scale and development of middle-income groups, the relationship among middle-income groups, middle-class and middle-class identity. This paper also analyzes the marginal consumption propensities of middle-income groups. This paper further indicates that the expansion of middle-income groups plays an important role in promoting mass consumption, maintaining continuous and stable economic growth, and overcoming the dual middle-income traps. This paper also proposes the choices facing China and some policy implications.