中国是国际黄金市场波动之源吗?

Is China a Source of Fluctuation in International Gold Market?

本文利用混频数据模型分析中国宏观经济状况对国际黄金市场波动率的影响,并对模型的预测能力进行分析和评价;通过引入已实现波动率和宏观经济变量预期对模型进行拓展。研究表明,中国宏观经济对国际黄金市场波动率呈现出正向影响;中国宏观经济政策的不稳定性会导致市场的波动,即中国宏观经济从不同方面对国际黄金市场长期波动率产生影响。

The author of this paper uses the MIDAS model to analyze the impacts of Chinese macroeconomic situation on fluctuation in international gold market, and presents the analysis and evaluation of the forecasting ability of the model. By the introduction of realized fluctuation and macroeconomic variable expectation, the model is reformed. It＇s found that the Chinese macro-economy has a positive impact on fluctuation in international gold market; the instability of Chinese macroeconomic policies will result in fluctuation in the market, which means that Chinese macro-economy impacts the long-term fluctuation in international gold market in different aspects.