乌兰浩特市近43年气温与降水量的耦合分析

ANALYSIS OF COUPLING BETWEEN THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION IN ULANHOT CITY IN RECENT 43 YEARS

1971~2014年内蒙古自治区乌兰浩特逐月气温和降水资料,利用关联耦合模型、线性回归分析法、滑动平均和累计距平的气候统计方法,分析其近43年的气候变化及降水与气温变化的耦合特征。结果表明:近43年的年均气温表现出上升趋势,增温速率为0.43℃/10a,上升了2℃,四季温度均呈上升趋势,春季增温最快;年降水量呈现出减少趋势,春季和冬季降水增加,夏季和秋季降水减少。研究区年均气温与年降水量耦合度在0.42~0.99之间,显示出了高耦合度;春季和秋季气温与降水量的耦合度较平稳,夏季和冬季的耦合度波动性较大,但是总体耦合度值较高。

According to the 1971 -2010 monthly mean temperature and precipitation data of Ulanhot City in the Inner Mongolia, u- sing related coupling model linear regression, moving average and cumulative anomaly climatic statistical methods, analysis of its40 years coupling feature of climate change. The results show that ： in recent 43 years, the annual average temperature showed a rising trend, warming rate of 0.43℃/10a, has risen by about2℃, the four seasons warming are show a rising trend , spring is added the fastest temperature; annual precipitation showed a decreasing trend, spring and winter precipitation are on the rate, summer and au- tumn precipitation are show a decreasing tend, In Ulanhot city coupling degree between O. 42 to 0.99 of average annual temperature and annual precipitation. It is considered to high coupling degree. Temperature and precipitation of coupling degree is maintained sta- ble in spring and autumn. Temperature and precipitation of coupling degree shows no constant changes in summer and winter.