基于Multi-Agent模型的行政政策对区域差异化房地产价格影响的研究

RESEARCH ON THE EFFECT OF ADMINISTRATIVE POLICIES ON REGIONAL DIFFERENCE OF HOUSE PRICES-BASED ON MULTI-AGENT MODEL

为了稳定房地产市场的价格波动,帮助房地产市场持续健康的发展,国家自2010年之后推出了一系列的行政政策来限制房地产市场的投机行为.为了研究这些行政政策是否能够起到应有的作用,文章构建了自下而上、系统全面的Multi-Agent房地产市场模型对行政政策在不同城市房地产市场的差异化效应进行了仿真研究.实证研究发现:1)利空性行政政策会使得目前的房地产市场价格在短期内持续降低,到达最低点之后会重新恢复上升态势.2)如果放开限购管制,将导致各地房地产市场价格持续上升.3)如果允许投资者在不同地区进行房地产投资行为,将推动未成熟的房地产市场价格更快的上升,反而对成熟的房地产市场影响较小.

In order to stabilize the real estate market price fluctuations and to help the real estate market continued healthy development,the state has introduced a series of administrative policies to limit speculation in the real estate market since2010.Aiming to quantitatively assess the impact of administrative policy on the real estate market and regional differences;this paper constructed a real estate transaction simulation model with the residents and the government as the main body in the multi-agent model.The study found that the first tier cities should take sustained real estate bad policy to stabilize housing prices,the second tier cities is the most suitable area for vigorously development,and the investment restrictions in the third tier cities can keep stabilizing development.Empirical study found that bear administrative policies would make the current real estate market prices continued to decline in the short term,and then it would resume the upward trend after the lowest point.Also,if the control of purchasing is released,it would lead to a continuous rise of house prices.In addition,if investors are allowed to invest real estate in different regions,it would promote the immature real estate market prices rise faster,but the mature real estate market is less affected.