基于相似度分析的电力设备台风风险预警方法

Typhoon Risk Early Warning for Electrical Equipment Based on Similarity Analysis

电网运行人员一般缺乏气象学领域的知识,难以及时全面掌握台风的变化规律。在不涉及过多气象学知识的条件下,采用迭代修正的思路对登陆前不同时间的台风进行相似度分析;根据台风和电力设备的数据特点,对设备受台风的影响程度进行量化预测分析,并结合设备健康状态进行设备台风风险分析;最后介绍前述方法在海南电网的系统实现与应用情况,方法简明实用,能够对电力设备台风风险进行及时明确的预警,可提高电网运行人员的运维工作效率,对研究电力设备的台风灾害防御具有参考价值。

It is difficult to fully acquire the typhoon disaster information in time for the staff working in electric power company because of the lack of knowledge in the field of meteorology. A iterative correction method for similarity analysis on typhoon of different time before typhoon landing is introduced in the condition of not involving too much meteorology knowledge. The quantitative prediction analysis of the influence degree of typhoon and the analysis of electrical equipment risk during typhoons are presented according to the data characteristics of typhoon and electrical equipment and by combining with the equipment health condition. The system implementation and application of the proposed method in Hainan power grid are introduced at last. It is shown that the method is simple and practicable, and typhoon risk early warning for electrical equipment can be given clearly and timely. It can improve the maintenance efficiency of the working staff. And it has reference value for the research of the typhoon disaster prevention for electrical equipment.