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基于动态权重德尔菲法的电力生产事故根本原因重要度分析 被引量:4

Root Cause Importance Degree Analysis of Power Production Accident based on Dynamic Weight and Delphi Method
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摘要 为实现电力企业的安全生产目标,本文基于动态权重德尔菲法,提出了一种电力生产事故根本原因重要度的分析方法。该方法首先采用统计分析和德尔菲法,分别获得事故原因发生概率,通过动态权重综合两者,得到最终的事故原因发生概率,结合专家重要度可对根本原因重要度进行分析。基于研究结果,可以对事故成因进行分析,并提出事故预防的解决措施,提高企业安全生产管理水平。 To realize the goal of safety production of electric power enterprises, an analysis method of root cause importance degree of power production accident based on dynamic weight and Delphi method, is proposed in this paper. In this method, the statistical analysis and the Delphi method are used to obtain the probability of occurrence of the accident. The final probability of cause of the accident is obtained by combining the two results through dynamic weight. Finally, we can analyze the importance degree of root cause by integrating the importance degree of experts. Based on the research results, we can analyze the causes of accident, put forward the solution of accident prevention and improve enterprise safety management level.
出处 《电气技术》 2017年第3期89-93,共5页 Electrical Engineering
关键词 电力生产事故 重要度 动态权重 德尔菲法 power production accident importance degree dynamic weight Delphi method
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