摘要
以青岛市为例,运用协整理论、误差修正模型,Granger因果关系检验等计量方法对青岛市房地产投资与经济增长之间的波动关系进行实证分析。结果发现,青岛房地产投资与经济增长存在着长期的动态均衡关系,房地产投资每增加1个百分点,经济增长1.3668个百分点;经济增长是房地产投资的格兰杰原因,但房地产投资不是经济增长的格兰杰原因,即它们存在单向的格兰杰因果关系。
Taking Qingdao as an example, this paper used the cointegration theory, error correction model and Granger causality test to analyze the fluctuation relationship between real estate investment and economic growth. It is found that Qingdao real estate investment and economic growth exist long-term dynamic equilibrium relationship. Real estate investment for each additional 1. 0 percentage point, economic growth 1. 3668 percentage points; economic growth is the Granger reasons of the real estate investment, but the real estate investment is not the economic growth of Granger reasons, that is, there is a one-way causal relationship between Grainger.
出处
《广东轻工职业技术学院学报》
2017年第1期15-21,共7页
Journal of Guangdong Industry Polytechnic
关键词
房地产投资
经济增长
协整检验
real estate investment
economic growth
cointegration test
error correction model
Granger causality test