金融发展如何影响经济波动？--基于中国232个城市的面板门槛模型研究

How Does Financial Development Affect Economic Volatility?——Evidence from 232 Chinese Cities Using Panel Threshold Model

本文基于中国232个城市2005-2013的面板数据,运用门槛面板回归模型考察了金融发展对经济波动的影响。实证结果显示,金融发展对经济波动的影响存在显著的非线性和非对称效应:在金融发展水平较低的区间内,金融发展所导致的经济波动效应比较明显;而当金融发展水平较高时,金融发展所导致的经济波动效应则会出现显著弱化。上述结论在多种稳健性检验下均显著成立。此外,通过将政府支出和产业结构的门槛值效应纳入分析,我们还发现,高水平的金融发展和良好的政府干预能力具有相互促进的效应,而过度的金融发展和失衡的产业结构则可能成为经济不稳定的重要原因。

Based on data of 232 Chinese cities over the period 2005-2013,this paper investigates the relationship between financial development and economic volatility using Panel Threshold Model.The results show that there is a significant nonlinear and asymmetric relationship between financial development and economic volatility:the effect of financial development on economic volatility is more significant and much larger at lower levels of financial development,while the reverse is true at higher levels of financial development.This result is shown to be robust across various robustness checks.In addition,by introducing government spending and industry structure into our model,we find that the positive effect of financial development on economic stabilization would be strengthened by increased capacity of government spending,but excessive financial development and unbalanced industry structure would be an important source of economic volatility.