前瞻性货币政策的演进逻辑

The Evolution and Logic of Forward-Looking Monetary Policy

前瞻性货币政策理念在各国央行实践中已被广为接受。本文从理论和实践两个层面对前瞻性货币政策演进的基本逻辑进行深入阐释。在理论层面,本文提出前瞻性货币政策兴起的三个彼此联系但又并不完全相同的历史背景,即卢卡斯批判、通胀目标制以及货币政策反应方程领域的研究推进。在实践层面,本文分析了市场预期引导渠道(即央行沟通和媒体报道)在前瞻性货币政策操作中的应用逻辑,并对货币政策前瞻指引的前提条件、实践种类、传导路径和有效性进行系统梳理。综合来看,虽然前瞻性货币政策理念的兴起源于不同的历史背景,但是中央银行对预期概念的认可、对预期变量的应用以及对预期引导的重视都成为前瞻性货币政策从理论走向实践的基本逻辑。

Forward looking monetary policy concept has been widely accepted in the practice of central banks.This paper discusses the basic logic behind the evolution of forward-looking monetary policy theoretical and practical perspective.On theoretical side,the paper gives three related but not identical factors in historical background:Lucas criticism,inflation targeting,and monetary policy reaction equation.On practical side,the paper analyzes the application of market expectation manipulation in forward-looking monetary policy operation and explores the preconditions,categories,transmission paths,and effectiveness of forward-looking monetary policy.Overall,although the forward-looking monetary policy concept originated from different historical background,the acceptance and application of expectation concept by central banks is critical for forward-looking monetary policy to evolve from theory into practice.