出口拉动增长抑或增长推动出口:来自中国的经验证据

Export-Led Growth or Growth-Led Export:China's Experience

出口与经济增长的关系问题是增长理论领域的一个热点问题。本文基于中国252个地级及以上城市2005-2012年的数据,采用面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型和面板Granger因果关系检验方法,分析了出口增速、经济增速、投资增速和政府支出增速之间的动态效应及其区域差异,实证检验了"出口拉动增长"假说和"增长推动出口"假说。经验研究发现:(1)总体上看,中国满足出口拉动增长假说,但不满足增长推动出口假说;(2)东部地区出口对经济增长的拉动效应要明显强于中西部地区;(3)Granger检验显示中国的出口与经济增长之间呈双向因果关系;(4)固定资产投资对经济增长的拉动作用明显;(5)东部地区政府支出对经济增长的拉动效应强于中西部地区。

The relationship between export and growth is a hot topic in economic growth theory.Based on the data from252 cities in China,the paper analyzes the dynamic effects and regional difference among the growth rates of China's export,output,investment and fiscal expenditures,through panel VAR econometric model and panel Granger causality test model,and tests the hypothesis of export-led growth or growth-led export.The conclusions are as follows:first,China generally meets the hypothesis of export-led growth but that of growth-led export;second,the effect of export-led growth in the eastern region is much stronger than that of the mid-western China;third,the export growth and output growth in China have a relationship of reciprocal causation;fourth,fixed asset investment has a strong positive effect on economic growth;finally,the effect of government expenditures on economic growth in Eastern China is stronger than that of Mid-Western China.