中国沿海地区旅游环境承载力与城镇化水平动态关联性分析

An Analysis of Dynamic Relation between Tourism Environmental Carrying Capacity and Urbanization Level in China's Coastal Regions

从人地协调关系的视角和二者交互作用的机理,本文以中国沿海地区11省市为研究对象,通过构建评价指标体系与运用多指标加权评价模型,分别测度2001-2012年间沿海地区及各省域的旅游环境承载力与城镇化水平的动态变化趋势与空间分异规律,并采用计量检验、构建向量自回归模型与脉冲响应函数探讨双方的均衡性、长期性与动态响应关系。研究表明:我国沿海地区2001-2012年间旅游环境承载力与城镇化水平逐步提升,彼此存在长期稳定的作用关系,城镇化在一定程度上会干扰与降低旅游环境承载力,旅游环境承载力的提高会促进城镇化水平发展。

From the perspective of the coordination relationship and the mechanism of interaction between man and land,and by establishing an evaluation index system and applying multicriteria weighted evaluation model,this paper studies tourism environmental carrying capacity and urbanization level in China＇s coastal areas and every province from 2001 to2012,indicating the dynamic variation trend and spatial differentiation of above two factors,and explores the equilibrium,long-term characteristic and dynamic response relationship by analyzing data with quantitative test and building vector autoregressive model and impulse response function. The findings of this study show that tourism environmental carrying capacity and urbanization level in coastal areas increased gradually from 2001 to 2012,and there is a long and stable relationship between them： the increase of urbanization level will have a negative effect on tourism environmental carrying capacity while the promotion of tourism environmental carrying capacity will further the development of urbanization.