亚行贷款分配决定因素的考察及其对亚投行的启示

Determinants of the Allocation of the Asian Development Bank's Loans and Its Enlightenment to the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank

多边开发银行的独立性,即其实际运作是否会受到主导国利益的影响是世人评判开发银行的重要内容,也是学界研究的焦点问题。文章以亚洲开发银行为研究对象,通过构建动态面板模型对亚行贷款分配的决定因素进行了考察。实证结果显示,亚行贷款的分配考虑到了受援国的人口、经济增长等客观因素,也的确受到美日利益的影响,亚洲国家经济发展的诉求有待获得更多融资支持。在此基础上,文章进一步论证了亚洲基础设施投资银行创设的必要性并对其运作提出了一定的政策建议。

The independence of multilateral development banks,namely whether their operations are influenced by the leading countries'interests,is an important point to judge the multilateral development banks,which is also the focal point in academia.This paper treats the Asian Development Bank(ADB)as research object,and investigates the determinants of ADB's allocation of loans by dynamic panel model.The result shows that the allocation of ADB's loans takes into account the objective factor like population increase and economic growth,and is also influenced by the interests of the United States and Japan.Therefore,the demands of Asian countries'economic development need further financial support.On the basis of these,the paper further proves the necessity of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank(AIIB),and the policy recommendations are provided to the operation of AIIB.