基于格网分析法的城市弹性增长边界划定研究——以苏州市为例

GRID-BASED SPATIAL EVALUATION OF ESTABLISHING URBAN GROWTH BOUNDARY:A CASE STUDY OF SUZHOU CITY

当前我国进入新常态发展阶段,新的经济社会形势要求提升城市发展质量,实现有序建设、适度开发、高效运行,需要对快速城镇化时期增长拉动型城市规划带来的负面效应进行反思。城市增长边界源于美国,是抑制城市蔓延的政策工具之一,目前已被引入我国总体规划编制体系。然而不同编制主体对于增长边界内涵的理解不同,划定方法也多依据经验定性判断,难以发挥实效。本文以长三角次中心城市之一的苏州为例,结合格网划定,综合考虑生态、建设条件、人口分布、经济发展、基础设施等方面因素,运用主成分分析法进行增长潜力分析,并结合聚类分析确定城市增长区,划定城市弹性增长边界,对于转型发展期的其他城市有借鉴意义。

Since the beginning of the twentyfirst century, China has undergone the urbanization process that posed unprecedented challenges to environmental protection, resource saving as well as sustainable development. Therefore, during the transformation period of coordinating urban development and environmental protection, changing the way of development has become one of the hot issues. Urban Growth Boundary （UGB） which limits the urban sprawl has been worldwide implemented by planning organizations in developed countries. The current planning process in China has also emphasized the importance of smart growth. Thus, it has become a great challenge for sustainable development to establish a scientific UGB. Suzhou, located in the central part of the Yangtze River Delta, is one of the core urban functional regions in east China. This paper proposed UGBs in Suzhou by applying integrated grid analysis approach including both qualitative and quantitative methods concerning land suitability, population distribution, economic development, infrastructure and other factors. In order to simulate the urban growth boundaries, Principal Component Analysis and Cluster Analysis have been used in the study. The case study of Suzhou provides a logical and replicable way to select the proper model of urban development.