中低速磁浮交通的技术经济性分析

Techno-economic Analysis of Low and Medium-speed Maglev Transport

研究目的:于2016年5月6日建成通车的长沙磁浮快线是我国第一条也是全世界第三条投入商业运营的中低速磁浮线路,其成功开通不仅引起了全社会的广泛关注,也使中低速磁浮交通在城市轨道交通领域内成为投资热点。如何确保投资决策的科学性,需要相关从业者慎重对待。本文通过对中低速磁浮交通与传统轮轨式交通的对比分析,全面研究中低速磁浮交通的技术特点和经济性,进而分析其适用环境、判断其未来发展前景,以供相关决策者参考。研究结论:通过中低速磁浮交通的技术特点和经济性分析得出:(1)中低速磁浮交通具有舒适环保、线路适应性强、安全性高、维护维修简单等显著优点;(2)中低速磁浮交通存在运量低、互联互通性较差、超载能力小、能耗偏高、单位运能下的建设成本较高等不足;(3)相对于传统轮轨式交通,其市场空间极小;(4)本研究成果可为涉及中低速磁浮交通产业或项目投资决策或技术经济比选的相关从业者提供借鉴指导意义。

Research purposes： The Changsha Maglev Express starting trial operations on May 6th 2016 is China’s first and also the world’ s third low and medium - speed maglev line that has been put into commercial operation. Its successful opening has not only attracted wide attention from the society as a whole,but also rendered low and medium -speed maglev transport a new hotspot for investment in urban rail transit. It requires serious consideration of all parties concerned to ensure scientific investment decisions. This paper conducts a comprehensive research on technical features and economic efficiency of low and medium - speed maglev transport through a comparative analysis between it and traditional wheel/rail transport. Furthermore,the paper analyzes the environment it applies to and predicts its prospect for development for the reference of decision - makers concerned. Research conclusions： From the analysis of technical features and economic efficiency of low and medium - speed maglev transport,the following can be concluded ： （ 1 ） It offers comfortable travel experience and is environment - friendly. It is also characterized by strong line adaptability,high safety, and low maintenance. （2） Its shortcomings include small traffic volume, relatively unfavorable connectivity, low overload capacity, relatively high energy consumption,and relatively high construction cost per unit transport capacity. （3） In contrast to traditional wheel rail transport,it has very limited market space. （4） These results have guiding significance for relevant practitioners engaged in the low and medium - speed maglev transport industry,project investment decision - making,and technical and economic comparison.