中国经济增长系统脆弱性的区域差异性研究——基于制度因素的度量

REGIONAL DIFFERENCES OF CHINESE ECONOMIC GROWTH SYSTEM VULNERABILITIES FROM THE PERSPECTIVE INSTITUTIONAL FACTORS

[目的及方法]以脆弱性理论和VSD模型,基于制度因素度量了2013年中国31个省域的经济增长系统脆弱性,并进行了区域差异分析和障碍度分析。[结果](1)脆弱性评价结果显示,在我国西部经济不发达地区的经济增长系统脆弱性较高,东部经济发达地区经济增长系统脆弱性低,大部分省区经济增长系统相对稳定与安全。在制度应对性高的省区,经济脆弱性较低;在制度应对性低,增长要素敏感性强的省区,经济脆弱性高。(2)空间特征分析发现,中国经济增长系统脆弱性呈现西—中—东脆弱性逐渐递减的空间分布特征。(3)空间热点地区显示,脆弱性高值集聚的热点地区为不发达的西部省区。(4)障碍度分析结果显示,城乡居民消费水平增长、第三产业增长、出口增长和城镇居民收入增长是主要的增长障碍。[结论]增加经济制度的应对性,可以消减经济增长系统的脆弱性。

Based on the theoretical of vulnerabilities and the VSD model, of the economic growth system in 31 provinces of China in 2013 from the this paper calculated the vulnerabilities perspective institutional factors. The re- sults showed that： （ 1 ） the vulnerabilities of the economic growth system were high in western underdeveloped region and low in economically developed eastern provinces. The vulnerability was low in the province which had high sys- tem responding. （2）The spatial distribution features of the vulnerabilities in Chinese economic growth system were gradually decreased from west to central andeast. （3）The areas with high vulnerabilities located in the underdevel- oped western provinces. （4）The increases in the consumption of urban and rural residents, the tertiary industry, export, and income of urban people were the major obstacles. It concluded that increasing the response capacity to economic growth could cut down the vulnerability. This study could provide theoretical and practical reference for sustainable economic growth.