中国房地产价格区域差异实证研究

Empirical Research on the Real Estate Price in Different Areas of China

由于经济基础不同,国内房地产市场发展很不平衡,房价在各地区间呈现显著的差异性,故仅以全国为单位去分析房价是有失偏颇的。本文应用1999—2013年全国29个省市的面板数据,分东部、中部和西部分别进行实证研究,试图找出我国房地产价格波动的区域差异,结果表明,西部地区房价依赖人均收入水平的程度最高,说明西部房价很大程度上依赖于经济水平的发展。中部地区房价受银行信贷的影响最大,超过了人均收入和土地价格对该地区房价的影响,说明正在向中部地区蔓延的的金融行业发展势头正盛,有效的刺激了房地产市场供给和需求。东部地区房价受人均收入的影响最大,可能是由于较高的收入水平导致一部分投资投机需求出现,导致房价非理性增长。

Due to the different economic foundation, the development of domestic real estate market is very uneven, and the price of housing in different regions shows significant difference. Therefore, it is biased to analyze the price of housing only from the national level. Based on the panel data of 29 provinces and cities in China from 1999 to 2013, this paper makes empirical studies on the eastern, central and western regions respectively, and tries to find out the regional difference of real estate price fluctuation in our country. The result shows that the western region relies on the highest per capita income level , indicating that western housing prices to a large extent dependent on the level of economic development. The central region of housing prices by the impact of bank credit, more than the per capita income and land prices on the impact of housing prices in the region, indicating that the financial sector is rapidly spreading to the central region, effectively stimulating the real estate market supply and demand. The eastern part of the housing prices by the per capita income of the greatest impact may be due to higher income level led to part of the investment speculative demand, resulting in irrational growth in house prices.