基于正交试验分析理论的页岩气初期产能预测新方法——以涪陵焦石坝为例

New Way of Predicting Initial Productivity of Shale Gas Based on Orthogonal Test Analysis Theory in Fuling Jiaoshiba Workzone

页岩气主要采用长水平井分段压裂模式进行开发,初期测试产能同时受地质参数及压裂施工参数的影响。分类统计并用厚度加权平均法计算处理单井地质、工程相关参数,采用正交试验分析理论进行多因素敏感性分析,确定影响页岩气水平井初期产能的主控因素,利用多元线性回归建立页岩气水平井初期产能预测模型,并以此模型预测新钻页岩气水平井初期产能,具有较高的页岩气井产能预测精度。在我国首个页岩气勘探开发示范基地四川盆地涪陵焦石坝区块地质条件分布稳定的主体区80多口页岩气水平井进行了应用,预测结果与实测结果对比,相对误差<15%,现场实用性强。

Long horizontal well staged fracturing mode is majorly used for shale gas development. Its initial produc tivity test is influenced by both geological parameters and fracturing parameters. The main controlling factors for ini tial productivity of shale gas horizontal wells can be determined by using thickness weighted average method to calcu late Itrld treat single--well geological and engineering parameters and using orthogonal test analysis theory to analyze hBS baen applied to more than 80 shale gas horizontal wells in Fuling Jiaoshiba workzone. The relative error of pre- dicti011 outcome with actual measurement result is less than 15%.