中国进口天然气能源投资回报分析

Analysis of the energy return on investment of imported natural gas in China

中国天然气消费需求增速迅猛,由此引致中国天然气进口量不断提高,且未来仍有继续增长的趋势。在此形势下,从能源投入和产出角度分析中国进口天然气的能源投资回报具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。本文以中国进口天然气和各个进口国为研究对象,首先测算了中国进口天然气的能源投资回报时间序列值,分析了形成这种变化趋势的主要原因,然后分别测算了各个进口国的能源投资回报时间序列,并进行了对比分析。此外,本文还通过对比考虑环境投入和不考虑环境投入两种情景下的能源投资回报,分析了温室气体(主要包括CO_2,CH_4和NO_X)排放对能源投资回报的影响。研究结果表明从能源投入产出效益角度分析,中国进口天然气具有可行性。就进口方式而言,管道气的能源投资回报更高;就进口来源而言,哈萨克斯坦、澳大利亚、印度尼西亚、乌兹别克斯坦等国具有很高的能源投资回报。论文的研究结论为推动进口天然气发展的政策制定提供了理论支持。

The consumption of natural gas in China has increased rapidly,which forces China to import more and more natural gas.In this situation,it is of both theoretical value and practical significance to study the energy return of investment（EROI）for China＇s imported natural gas.In this paper,the imported natural gas in China and the different imported sources are studied.The EROIs of China＇s imported natural gas are calculated firstly,and the reasons for its tendency are analyzed.Then the EROIs of different import sources are estimated and compared.In addition,the impacts of greenhouse gas（mainly CO2,CH4 and NOX）on the EROI are studied by comparing the standard EROIs and the EROIs with environmental inputs.The results show that the imported natural gas are feasible in the perspective of energy input-output efficiency.In terms of imported pattern,the pipeline gas has higher EROIs;in the case of the import sources,Kazakhstan,Australia,Indonesia,Uzbekistan have higher EROIs.This study provides a theoretical foundation for policy making of imported natural gas development.